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I agree with much of the logic of your analysis but I don’t think you’re properly accounting for the globalized market. CBD Isolate can pretty much be grown anywhere. There are some very big grows in Colombia. Even the grows in the South Eastern US will bring massive scale to extraction facilities. Isolate prices will absolutely crash.
Distillate and crude and other extracts may have a slightly bigger buffer but they’ll have the same problem. I wouldn’t grow for biomass.
Smokeable flower is more interesting. It’s much less of a commodity than the extracts but no one really knows how big the market is. Quality smokeable flower seems to be grown in the US, primarily in Oregon and Colorado. There is international demand for American smokeable hemp flower but regulations for shipping are a gray area.
There’s also all of the other products hemp can be used to make. There’s also all the other genetics coming out. New cannabinoids like CBG and new terpene profiles.
All in all it’s a very complicated situation and no one knows what’s going to happen. I would worry if I manufactured distillate or isolate though.